Security Risks and Proliferation Concerns: Impact of Targeted Killings on Iran's Nuclear Program
The recent targeted killings of Iranian nuclear scientists by U.S. and Israeli military strikes have raised concerns about potential proliferation risks if the Iranian regime destabilizes. While Iran can replace lost personnel, the expertise and undisclosed sites pose challenges in safeguarding dangerous materials and knowledge. The risk of nuclear terrorism or materials moving to the black market is currently low, but internal instability could increase these risks.
If the current Iranian government collapses or internal conflict escalates, there is a heightened risk of nuclear materials being stolen or diverted to undeclared sites. Iranian nuclear scientists may also be tempted to sell their expertise to entities seeking nuclear weapons. The series of targeted killings in 2025 and 2026, including high-ranking figures like Hossein Jabal Amelian, have impacted Iran's weaponization capabilities and created uncertainty about the future of its nuclear program.
The loss of experienced scientists and managers in sensitive areas of Iran's nuclear work, such as the fuel cycle and weaponization, will be challenging to replace. The targeted strikes have hit key weaponization-related sites, hindering Iran's program in the short term. Despite retaining enriched nuclear material, Iran faces obstacles in recovering from the strikes, with uncertainties about the lasting impact on its nuclear capabilities and intentions.
President Donald Trump has expressed willingness to work with Iran to recover enriched uranium from sites, while the International Atomic Energy Agency estimates Iran still holds significant amounts of enriched uranium. The aftermath of the strikes has left Iran with damaged facilities and uncertainties about its nuclear ambitions. The true extent of the strikes' impact on Iran's nuclear weapons program remains to be seen, as the situation continues to evolve.