Texas Senate Primary Polling: Talarico Leads Crockett, Paxton Ahead in Republican Race
In the latest polling data, Democrat James Talarico is currently leading Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic Senate primary in Texas. According to the Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey, Talarico is ahead by 9 points among likely primary voters, with 47 percent supporting him compared to Crockett's 38 percent. There is still a significant portion of undecided voters at 15 percent.
Talarico, a Texas state legislator and former middle school teacher, has gained momentum in the race, having raised over $13 million since his campaign launch in September. The poll indicates that Talarico has strong support from Hispanic and white voters, with nearly six in 10 from each group backing him. In contrast, 80 percent of Black Democratic primary voters are in favor of Crockett.
Men are more inclined towards Talarico, with a 22-point lead, while women are evenly split between the two candidates. Talarico's profile rose last year when he was part of the group of Texas Democrats who left the state to delay a redistricting plan favored by the GOP. Crockett, a well-known but controversial figure in her party, entered the race in December, altering the dynamics of the Democratic primary.
On the Republican side, Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a slight lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the primary, with 27 percent to 26 percent among likely Republican voters. Rep. Wesley Hunt follows closely at 16 percent, and 29 percent of voters are undecided. The Republican electorate remains divided, with a potential runoff between Paxton and Cornyn in May.
In potential general election matchups, Paxton is tied with both Talarico and Crockett, each earning 46 percent of the vote. Cornyn, however, leads against Talarico by 47 percent to 44 percent and against Crockett by 48 percent to 43 percent. Despite Democratic optimism about Texas, which voted for Trump by a large margin in 2024, the Cook Political Report still considers the Senate race as likely Republican.
The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll was conducted from Jan. 10-12 among 1,165 Texas voters. The credibility interval for likely Democratic primary voters was plus or minus 4.8 percentage points, and for likely Republican primary voters, it was plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.