Unusually Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Rare Calm During Peak Season
The Atlantic hurricane season typically peaks around September 10, with favorable conditions for tropical storm and hurricane development. However, this year, no tropical cyclone formation is expected in the next seven days, marking a rare occurrence of a quiet day during the peak season. The Atlantic basin has been unusually calm in the past two weeks, with dry and dusty air contributing to the lack of storm activity.
Several factors, including warm ocean temperatures, atmospheric moisture, and low wind shear, usually contribute to storm development during the peak season. However, the presence of dry and dusty air has kept the Atlantic unusually quiet this year. While the Atlantic may remain calm for the next 7-10 days, the Gulf's above-average water temperatures could lead to the formation of tropical storms in the coming weeks.
Despite the quiet start to the Atlantic hurricane season, the eastern Pacific basin has been unusually active, with 12 named storms and seven hurricanes already formed. Forecasters predict that the Atlantic main development region will see more conducive atmospheric conditions for tropical development in the second half of the month. Preseason forecasts anticipated an active year with up to 19 named storms, but the actual number of storms has been lower so far.
As the season progresses, forecasters expect an increase in tropical cyclone development in the eastern Atlantic and western Caribbean/southern Gulf regions. While initial forecasts predicted a more active season, the quiet peak season suggests that this year may end up on the lower end of preseason forecasts. Despite the low-impact year so far, there is still a possibility of more storm activity in the coming weeks.