Texas Tribune's The Brief: Latest Poll Shows Cornyn Leading Paxton in GOP Senate Primary

Texas Tribune's The Brief: Latest Poll Shows Cornyn Leading Paxton in GOP Senate Primary

Stay informed with The Brief, a daily newsletter from The Texas Tribune that provides the latest essential news from Texas. A recent poll of the Texas Senate GOP primary shows Senator John Cornyn leading Attorney General Ken Paxton by a slim margin of 1 percentage point, overturning previous polls that had Cornyn trailing by significant margins. In a survey of nearly 500 registered Texas voters planning to participate in the Republican primary, Cornyn secured 30% of the vote compared to Paxton's 29%, with 37% of respondents undecided. If no candidate reaches over 50% of the vote in the March primary, the top two contenders will proceed to a runoff in May.

The poll, conducted by Emerson College, marks the first public survey of the contentious primary race since Cornyn's supporters began airing millions of dollars in advertisements. On the other hand, Paxton and his supporters have held back on advertising, waiting for closer to the primary date to launch their campaigns. Groups aligned with Senate Republicans have invested significant resources in supporting Cornyn, warning that a Paxton candidacy could jeopardize the party's Senate seat and require substantial funds to defend. The Emerson poll also revealed that in a broader sample of 1,000 Texas voters, both Cornyn and Paxton outperformed Democrat Colin Allred in hypothetical matchups.

The latest poll results diverge significantly from previous surveys of the primary race, with the Emerson poll indicating a much closer contest between Cornyn and Paxton than previously suggested. Both candidates are vying for an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, whose support could sway undecided voters in the tight race. Trump's approval rating in Texas remains higher than the national average, with a significant portion of undecided voters indicating that his endorsement could influence their decision.

In addition to the Senate race, the poll highlighted Trump's approval rating in Texas, the top issues concerning Texans, and preferences for the 2028 presidential election. The survey also revealed that voters are closely monitoring the redistricting efforts in Texas, with mixed opinions on the process. As the state grapples with redistricting challenges, voters are divided on the issue, particularly regarding the actions taken by Texas House Democrats to stall the process.

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