2026 Midterm Elections: Congress Faces Record Number of Retirements and Transitions
As the 2026 midterms approach, a significant number of members of Congress are opting not to seek reelection, setting a modern record for this point before the election. Nine Senators and 21 House members have announced their decision not to run, signaling a shift in the political landscape. The upcoming election will see 470 Congressional seats on the ballot, including all 435 House seats and 33 Senate contests, with two special elections in Ohio and Florida.
This year's midterm cycle is marked by a notable trend of members of Congress looking to transition to serving as governors in their states. Three sitting Senators, including Tommy Tuberville, Marsha Blackburn, and Michael Bennet, are among those eyeing gubernatorial roles. This shift from governor to Senate is a departure from the traditional path in politics, reflecting the current polarization and gridlock in Congress.
The move from Congress to governorship has historically been successful, with a higher success rate for senators transitioning to governors compared to governors running for Senate. The current political environment, characterized by partisan divisions, may be driving this trend. Some governors, like Brian Kemp and Chris Sununu, have opted not to run for Senate, possibly eyeing the 2028 presidential primaries as an alternative path.
On the House side, a number of Representatives are looking to make the jump to the Senate, with both Democrats and Republicans vying for Senate seats. Additionally, several House representatives, all Republicans, are running for governor, aiming to raise their political profiles and leverage their positions in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The turnover in Congress since Trump's first term in 2017 has been significant, with over half of the lawmakers from the 115th Congress no longer in office. Retirement has been the most common form of departure, followed by electoral defeat, running for a different office, or primary challenges. Lawmakers are increasingly looking to leave Washington for reasons such as maintaining a life beyond Congress and navigating the scrutiny on older lawmakers' age and performance.
The current political climate, marked by power struggles within the Republican Party and the influence of former President Trump, is prompting some lawmakers to consider retirement. The August recess provides an opportunity for lawmakers to assess their reelection prospects based on constituent feedback and polling data, potentially leading to more retirements as the election season approaches.